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November 2021 Preview

November Timeline

What to look out for this month:

Selected Calendar Events

1-2 November

Day of the Dead in Mexico

LOW RISK
Día de los Muertos is the day to dem-onstrate love and respect for deceased family members, authentically celebrated in Mexico. Countless Mexican communities commemorate the day with different styles and customs. They also dress up, hold parades and parties, sing and dance, and offer lost loved ones

4 November

Diwali Day

LOW RISK

5 November

Guy Fawkes Day in the United Kingdom

LOW RISK

10 November

World Science for Peace and Development

NEGLIGIBLE RISK

25 November

Thanksgiving Day in the United States

NEGLIGIBLE RISK
It is a national day in the United States, centering on cooking and sharing a bounti-ful meal with family and friends. Volunteer-ing is a common activity on this day, and communities often hold food drives and host free dinners for the least fortunate. Parades have also become an integral part of the holiday in cities and towns across the country.

25 November

International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women

NEGLIGIBLE RISK
The General Assembly of the United Nations adopted the day to raise public awareness against gender-based violence every year on this day. As the efforts to eliminate all violence remain a challenge worldwide, the movement and advocacy push continues to grow. More participation in women’s campaigns and rallies is seen to help more women to break away from the circle of domestic violence.

29 November

International Day of Solidarity with the Palistinian People

LOW RISK

Elections & Independence Day

3 November

Independence Day in Dominica

LOW RISK

4 November

Falkland Islands general election

LOW RISK

7 November

Generel elections in Nicaragua

MEDIUM RISK

9 November

Independence Day in Colombia

LOW RISK
Cambodia marks the 68th anniversary from the French colonial rule on this day. The biggest celebration is usually held in Phnom Penh, beginning with a formal ceremony at the Independence Monument followed by a gala parade in front of the Royal Palace.

11 November

Independence Day in Poland

LOW RISK

14 November

Legislative election in Argentina

LOW RISK

18 November

Independence Day in Morocco

LOW RISK

21 November

General elections in Venezuela

HIGH RISK

21 November

General elections in Chile

LOW RISK

22 November

Independence Day in Lebanon

LOW-
MEDIUM RISK
The celebrations are likely to resume amid the extension of general mobilization through at least 31 December due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The occasion is traditionally marked by a military parade in Beirut attended by high-ranking officials. However, protests due to economic depression and Beirut’s August 2020 port blast are also possible to taint the commemorations, especially in main cities.

28 November

General elections in Honduras

MEDIUM RISK

28 November

Parliamentary elections in Kyrgystan

LOW RISK
Risk Level Categories
NEGLIGIBLE RISK
LOW RISK
MEDIUM RISK
HIGH RISK
CRITICAL RISK
Safeture Analysis November

Reawakening of La Palma’s dormant volcano forces thousands to scramble for safety

The Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma, Canary Islands, has continued to spew volcanic material since its eruption on 19 September. Streams of lava have covered a wide area of land, destroying almost 2,000 buildings in the process. No casualties have been reported as Spanish authorities were prepared in advance.

Scientists detected increased seismic activity at the volcano before the eruption and advised affected areas to be evacuated. Nevertheless, experts can only estimate the duration of a volcanic eruption using current capabilities. In the case of Cumbre Vieja, the volcano remains highly unstable and could continue erupting until December. This situation offers an insight into short- and long-term disruptions when a dormant volcano explodes near a population center.
As the volcano erupted, thousands of residents were forced to evacuate as rivers of lava threatened to swallow everything in their path. In addition, multiple routes were cut off by lava flows or closed by authorities as a precaution. Maritime traffic was also temporarily halted. Furthermore, the volcano spewed thick ash clouds that have disrupted regional flights on several occasions. During this phase of volcanic instability, the region will likely experience frequent earthquakes as more magma is pushed to the surface.
When Cumbre Vieja finally cools off, the local population will likely experience long-term consequences for years to come. Many areas will remain uninhabitable or cut off for extended periods. It may take months or even years to clear some areas. Similarly, damaged public infrastructure could affect services in the surrounding regions. Concerns over the volcano’s stability and the occasional tremors may delay clearing efforts further. The economic cost will be heavy as the lava flows destroyed buildings and rendered vast swathes of farmland barren. In the end, many residents will need to relocate and find a new source of income.
Although destructive, the eruption of Cumbre Vieja was mild, allowing authorities ample time to organize an effective response. The affected region is also relatively remote, far from international trade and travel routes. There are dozens of other active volcanoes located near population centers. Some of these pose a greater threat due to higher instability and closer proximity to major cities. An explosive eruption at such locations could incur a terrible cost in lives and disrupt the regional movement of people. An example of such a volcano is Mount Vesuvius in Italy. It is the same volcano that suddenly blanketed Pompeii in lava in 79 A.D. A similar eruption is expected in the future. Hundreds of thousands inhabit areas that authorities consider will have little time to prepare.
However, the scientific community is closely monitoring such locations and knows the respective volcano’s history well. Even before a warning comes in, it will be up to everyone to take lessons from previous eruptions. While humanity cannot prevent the next major volcanic eruption, we can prepare in advance for any contingencies.

What should I take note of near a volcano?

  • If you live near a known volcano, active or dormant, be prepared to follow volcano safety instructions from your local emergency officials
 
  • If you see the water level of a stream begin to rise, quickly move to the high ground due to the risk of mudflow, powerful “rivers” of mud that can move 32-64 km/h (20 to 40 mph). If a mudflow is approaching or passes a bridge, stay away from the bridge.
 
  • Stay out of the area defined as a restricted zone by government officials. Effects of a volcanic eruption can be experienced many kilometers from a volcano. Mudflows and flash flooding, wildland fires, and even deadly hot ashflow can reach you even if you cannot see the volcano during an eruption. Avoid river valleys and low-lying areas. Trying to watch an erupting volcano up close is very dangerous.
 
  • Consider alternative transport in the event of an evacuation. Air transport will likely be disrupted, and other modes of public transportation may experience disruptions.
pacific ring of fire volcanoes
Figure 1: The “Pacific Ring of Fire” stretches from the Americas to Asia and Oceania, with several big cities dotted along with it
november election latin america
Safeture Analysis November Preview

Latin America gears up for November election season

Thousands of people are set to go to the polls in November amid an election cycle across Latin America. The handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, economic stagnation, and a shrinking civic space are all expected to set the agenda and influence election results in the region.

falkland islands election

4 November: Falkland Islands

LOW RISK
The Falkland Islands general election is scheduled to take place on Thursday, 4 November. The election will seek to fill all eight available seats of the Legislative Assembly through block voting. Five seats will be made up from the Stanley constituency and three from the Camp constituency.

7 November: Nicaragua

Medium RISK
A tight race is expected as the country holds Legislative elections on 14 November. Primaries were held in September that saw the main opposition coalition (Juntos por el Cambio) clinching the majority of congressional districts, including the influential district of Buenos Aires. The ruling Frente de Todos coalition has faced increased criticism over handling the Covid-19 pandemic, rising poverty, and annual inflation, which was reflected in voter turnout and the loss of stronghold districts. With control of the legislature at stake, the current administration may have to adopt more radical positions to garner support from an increasingly alienated electorate.
argentina

14 November: Argentina

LOW RISK
A contentious General Election is set to take place on 7 November with President Daniel Ortega, of the Sandinista National Liberation Front, seeking re-election. Authorities in the lead up to this election have launched a clampdown against prominent opposition figures and independent journalists, with many arbitrarily detained and barred from participation. With term limits already eliminated and with no viable opposition, Otega is expected to secure a fourth consecutive term as President of the country. The deadly anti-government protests held in July 2018 provide a stark reminder of the measures employed by the current administration to suppress any dissent. As such, any form of opposition is likely to be met with force, but with election irregularities expected, renewed anti-government protests cannot be ruled out.
chile

21 November: Chile

LOW RISK
Presidential, parliamentary, and regional elections are set to take place on 21 November in what could prove to be among the most significant in Chile’s history. New, younger candidates representing a shift in Chilean politics have emerged, which could transform the political landscape in the country. Initial polling shows a tight race between several candidates, and a run-off election will be held on 19 December if no candidate receives a simple majority (50 percent of the votes). As it stands, Gabriel Boric of the left-wing ‘Approve Dignity’ coalition and José Antonio Kast of the conservative Republican Party are leading polls and are likely to vie for the presidency in December.
venezuela

21 November: Venezuela

High RISK
Following years of chaotic political upheaval, Venezuela will hold regional elections on 21 November. President Nicolas Maduro has managed to cling to power, despite a US-backed effort to remove him, widespread poverty, and a crumbling economy. An opposition coalition, headed by Juan Guaidó, is set to participate in the upcoming elections, in a departure from previous years that saw widespread boycotts of electoral processes. Despite this, the opposition remains fragmented, and failing to present a united front could help Maduro cement his parties hold on power. Associated protests in support and opposition of the elections can be expected across the country.
honduras

28 November: Honduras

Medium RISK
General elections will be held in Honduras on 28 November. Opposition parties have united behind Xiomara Castro (wife of deposed former President Manuel Zelaya), who presents a serious challenge to the ruling National Party candidate Nasry Asfura. The country has been grappling with high violent crime rates, rising unemployment, and a large exodus of people seeking better opportunities. Mismanagement of funds, widespread corruption, and allegations of clientelism have left many disillusioned with the current administration. It remains to be seen whether it will repeat the controversial 2017 elections that saw widespread protests and dozens of casualties. Still, with such a tight race anticipated, any irregularities are expected to be challenged.
election latin america 2021 map
Figure 2: Central and South American electoral map for November 2021
On the radar
safeture analysis Ezza

Military coups threaten Sudan's transition toward democracy

Sudan has once again been thrown into uncertainty following a coup in late October. The latest development came at a time when country’s military and civilian power-sharing partners have been locked in a war of words, with the former pushing for the reform of the Cabinet and ruling coalition. Following a failed coup attempt in September, civilian politicians have accused the military of aiming for a power grab. The now deposed, Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok had previously denied the dispute, saying the division was between the civil democratic transition camp and those against the ‘December revolution’ after the ouster in April 2019 of dictator Omar Al-Bashir. However, the country continues to be divided as pro-military protestsgained strength, in Khartoum and Port Sudan, protesters blocked roads around the port and demanded the dismissal of the current government after failing to get them out of the political and economic stagnation. In consequence, the country is running out of life-saving medicines, fuel and wheat stocks as frustration mounts against a backdrop of constant political instability. As the civilian government collapsed following the house arrest of Hamdok, the country is once again at risk of reversing earlier gains in its transition toward a democratic nation.
flash floods

Millions across the globe set to mark Diwali celebrations on 4 November

Diwali (or Deepavali) is set to be greeted by millions of Hindus, Jains, and Sikhs across the globe for five days from 4 November. Dubbed the “festival of lights,” celebrations stretch beyond India into various parts of the world where there is a strong presence of Hindu communities such as Malaysia, Singapore, Fiji, Guyana, Mauritius, and the United Kingdom, the United States, among others. As the day is also a public holiday for some countries, domestic traveling is also expected to increase, with transportation hubs set to get busier than usual. Firework displays and festive gatherings will also be held amid regional variations in lights, sounds, arts, and flavors. The lighting of lamps, dance events, sweet snacks, and presentation of a “kolam” (a decorative art using rice flours) will be the key highlights for many during the festival. While the celebrations give a reason to cheer for many, health officials have also issued a reminder that much of the world has remained under the clout of Covid-19 and urged the public to continue adhering to health protocols at all times.

Fuel shortages trigger chaos in the U.K. as Brexit bites

In late September 2021, numerous signage of ‘Sorry Out of Use’ were spotted at gas stations across the United Kingdom (U.K.) after panicbuying fuelled the country into shortages. Long lines snaked down streets as drivers struggled to fill up their vehicles due to disruption on fuel deliveries. However, the latest chaos was not caused by a lack of fuels but a shortage of heavy goods drivers (HGV). The crisis has disrupted most of the country’s supply-chain operations. As a result of the shortages, the government deployed military personnel and issued a short-term visa scheme to ease the situation. Strict Brexit immigration rules have made the U.K. less attractive to foreign HGV drivers, and there are 30,000 fewer truck drivers in the U.K. than a year ago. Moreover, national lockdowns have created an enormous backlog to produce new batches of the U.K.’s HGV drivers. Although such short-term measures have slightly eased the situation, the core problem remains unsolved. As such, the risk of crisis recurrence should not be ruled out, especially at times when retail sales are expected to pick up ahead of the Christmas season.
flash floods

Parts of Southeast Asia brace for potential flash floods as rainy season peaks in November

Several countries in Southeast Asia are expected to see their peak rainfall for the year in November amid the ongoing rainy season. Major cities in the region will experience a higher than usual amount of rain, resulting in flash floods. Kuala Lumpur, for instance, is expected to see average precipitation peaking at about 320 mm in November. Likewise, Singapore will also begin to see wetter conditions with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, offering a respite following the humid conditions before noon. The rainy conditions in these cities are attributed to the twice-a-year inter-monsoon period from September till November. Although these cities are rarely hit hard by severe flooding due to the presence of large monsoon drains, the occurrences of flash flooding still cause delays in traveling due to congestion and blocked roads. Landslides are also not uncommon in suburban areas due to the persistent rainfall. The situation generally gets better in January as rainfall starts to subside and hotter conditions set in.

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