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Product Details - Risk Assessment Methodology

Risk Assessment Methodology Overview

All alerts published in the Safeture Platform are assigned both a risk level and one, or several, risk categories by the Safeture analysts. The country-specific risk assessments are categorized into the same ten risk categories but have five different risk levels. Below you find in-depth information on the risk assessment methodology.

Risk Categories – Alerts

Airstrike: attack conducted by an aircraft (including UAV).

Armed Conflict: armed clashes between two or more state actors or aspiring state actors involving conventional warfare tactics.

Civil Unrest: violent gatherings (be it riots or violence on behalf of protesters, or forcible dispersal by security forces).

Crime: opportunistic and/or smaller scale than organized crime.

Cyber-attack: conducted via cyberspace.

Developing: any incident with potential immediate effect with yet unclear circumstances, which requires immediate notification to clients before all details are clear (for example- an explosion may be a suicide bombing or a gas cylinder accident, but nonetheless needs to be reported immediately so that mitigating actions can be taken).

Earthquake: shift in tectonic plates, Earthquakes can range in size from very weak to catastrophic.

Fire: a large and destructive inflammation event that may threaten human life, health, and/or property.

Health: medical threat to peoples’ wellbeing or interference of medical installations.

Holiday: celebration/occasion that results in travel/operational disruptions.

Labor Action: strikes of different levels, from local disruptions to complete shutdowns.

Militancy: armed clashes involving at least one side that employs unconventional warfare tactics.

Organized Crime – racketeering, extortion, blackmail, trafficking and any large-scale organized criminal activities.

Piracy – criminal attack targeting naval vessel.

Politics – changes in policies/strategic developments which may impact travel/operations.

Protest – gathering of a number of people to demonstrate their shared public ideas.

Rocket/Mortar – usage of standoff weapons in a capacity other than airstrikes.

Service Failure – water/electricity/communications outages, etc.

Travel – any incident that would impact travel and does not fall in line with the other categories (for example: road work).

Volcano – eruption of hot lava, volcanic ash, and gases.

Weather – unusual weather conditions that may pose risk to human life, property and business continuity.

Risk Levels – Alerts

  • Low Risk

Information that may be good to know, such as public transport disturbances, minor demonstrations or updates of previous security warnings.

  • Medium Risk

Vorfälle oder Bedrohungen, die sich in den nächsten Tagen ereignen können oder kürzlich ereignet haben.

  • High Risk

Unmittelbare und ernsthafte Bedrohungen für Ihre Sicherheit und/oder Gesundheit.

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Country Risk Assessment – Negligible Risk

The likelihood and potential consequences of a threat are so low that no or only very basic mitigation measures are necessary.

  • Civil Unrest: Stable economic and political situation. Infrequent and non-violent protests. Protest issues are effectively resolved within the accepted legal framework. Labor situation is largely stable with infrequent localized strikes. Inter-communal harmony.
  • Crime: Crime rates are very low and typically limited to certain areas. No specific threat to foreign personnel or assets No to low-level organized crime. Effective law enforcement.
  • Environment: Environmental hazards are limited. Conditions may cause limited disruption to organizations or individuals but are predictable and manageable.
  • Health and Medical: Medical facilities are effective and easily available. Common aliments pose no specific additional risk.
  • Infrastructure and Transport: Extensive and resilient Critical National Infrastructure (CNI). Transport system is extensive, safe, and reliable.
  • Insurgency and Armed Conflict: No modern precedent for internal armed conflict. No known separatist groups.
  • International Relations: Diplomatic relations are amicable. No precedent for dispute.
  • Kidnap: Kidnap incidents are rate, isolated, and not part of any specific organized criminal activity.
  • Political Stability: Political system is very stable, with a high standard of governance. Economic conditions are generally very good.
  • Terrorism: No evidence of terrorist groups operating in the area. No history of terrorist attacks. Location is not known as a focal point for extremism. Security forces display a very high level of professionalism and capability in preventing and responding to acts of terrorism.

Country Risk Assessment – Low Risk

  • Civil Unrest: Infrequent to regular protests cause some disruption. Occasional strikes cause localized disruption but are neither systemic nor sector-focused. Localized inter-communal tension and rate violence between individuals. Mass peaceful protests. Security forces are able to contain protests or disperse with acceptable levels of force. Violent clashes are rare.
  • Crime: Crime rates are low. Small-scale activity by organized criminal groups, including drug and human trafficking, counterfeiting. Periodic isolated incidents of violence between rival criminal groups; overall civilian impact low. Law enforcement and legal institutions generally robust.
  • Environment: Environmental hazards can cause damage or harm but are predictable and manageable. Extreme environmental events occur seasonally. Natural disasters occur but are usually small-scale. Conditions can disrupt travel and commodity supplies in affected areas. Conditions can impact local infrastructure/telecommunications. Effective disaster management bodies and safety standards.
  • Health and Medical: Medical facilities fair. Vulnerable individuals may be especially susceptible to a range of communicable diseases, but precautionary measures and sanitation can mitigate the risk.
  • Infrastructure and Transport: CNI (Critical National Infrastructure) is resilient but with precedent for elements failing for short periods of time (less than 24 hours) Transport system is effective but not extensive.
  • Insurgency and Armed Conflict: Government legitimacy is contested peacefully. Domestic political issues generate low levels of violent protests. Groups with separatists or anti-government agendas exist but lack intent and/or capability to use violence. Precedent for internal armed conflict.
  • International Relations: Ongoing low-level diplomatic disputes. Precedent for escalated, yet non-violent disputes. Belligerent diplomatic communications regarding specific issues. Nationally targeted cyber-attacks. Threats made by other countries that military action may be taken in relation to a specific issue(s).
  • Kidnap: Kidnap incidents occur regularly but remain mainly within criminal circles or have business/personal motivations. Some fatalities of victims. Targets may include foreign travelers involved in express kidnappings.
  • Political Stability: Political system is mostly stable, with predictable governance structures. Civil society tensions exist but are manifested peacefully. Political debate generates small-scale tension. Economic conditions are generally good Individual cases of public sector corruption.
  • Terrorism: Credible evidence of terrorist groups active, albeit at a low level. Precedent for terrorist activity in the past decade. Opportunity and capability for terrorist action is limited. Isolated areas or certain groups may face a specific threat. Security forces display a high level of professionalism and capability in preventing and responding to acts of terrorism.

Country Risk Assessment – Medium Risk

The likelihood and/or potential consequences of a threat are such that robust mitigation measures are recommended. Professional support might be required in some areas.

  • Civil Unrest: Frequent protests often cause disruption. Strikes affect multiple sectors or cause shutdown in a single sector. Security force capability is generally satisfactory but presence at demonstrations sometimes results in violent clashes. Foreign interests may be affected but are not generally targeted, Communities polarized, with regular small-scale violence.
  • Crime: High crime rates in some areas. Organized crime groups are well established. Known production/transit point for illicit goods on international market. Frequent incidents of violence between criminal groups. Clashes involve law enforcement agencies. Ineffectual law enforcement and legal institutions.
  • Environment: Environmental extremes occur seasonally and are generally predictable. Natural disasters occur with some regularity, Disruption to commodity supplies/business continuity in country. Frequent loss of life to environmental factors is common. Inconsistent emergency response in some areas.
  • Health and Medical: Good-quality medical care is limited to major urban areas. A range of communicable diseases exist, but precautionary measures and sanitation can mitigate the risk. Inconsistent emergency response.
  • Infrastructure and Transport: CNI (Critical National Infrastructure) is not extensive nor resilient and is sometimes unable to cope with demands placed upon it. The transport system is unsafe, unreliable, and ineffective. Major routes are blocked for short periods with some regularity. Sporadic disruption to basic commodity supplies. Some disruption to telecommunication systems. Power cuts are frequent.
  • Insurgency and Armed Conflict: Government legitimacy is challenged by armed non-state actors with the intent to secede or overthrow the government. Government capacity to deliver essential services, including security, across territory is challenged.
  • International Relations: Ongoing diplomatic dispute with precedent for armed conflict. Targeted/partial sanctions. Diplomatic negotiations in quagmire. Small-scale border incursions by hostile powers with violence limited geographically. Security forced on increased readiness and/or deployed to protect critical national infrastructure. Foreign governments recall non-essential staff.
  • Kidnap: Kidnapping are systematic as part of organized criminal activity with some violence and occasional fatalities involved. Express kidnappings of foreign nationals occur more widely and some explicit targeting of expatriate community. Kidnap for ransom of foreign nationals occurs sporadically. Some evidence of complicity of state actors.
  • Political Stability: Political stability faces challenges. Dissent against political regime include violence in localized areas. Government capacity to deliver essential services across territory is challenged. Social and economic conditions contribute to unrest. Significant levels of corruption. Political leaders and state officials have links to criminal organizations and other threat groups.
  • Terrorism: Terrorist groups are active in the area and demonstrate both intent and capability to carry out attacks. Opportunity for attack is limited. Precedent for terrorist attacks – including mas-casualty incidents – but such occurrences are infrequent or historical. Security forces are under-resourced when combating terrorist threat.

Country Risk Assessment – High Risk

The likelihood and/or potential consequences of a threat are at such a high level that professional support is likely required in order to mitigate the risk.

  • Civil Unrest: Large-scale protest actions occur frequently and cause signitifant disruption. Strikes cause complete shutdown of entire industries or sectors. Security forces struggle or are unable to cope with protests and instead cause antagonism, often resulting in violent clashes. Rioting occurs periodically causing economic damage and potential threats to human life. Regular mass violence between polarized communities.
  • Crime: Crime levels are too high for security forces to adequately cope. Low-level criminals routinely carry firearms. Major producer/transit point for illicit goods. Criminal groups are well-armed. Sustained clashes involving law enforcement agencies. Organized criminal activity is evident throughout society. Law enforcement is incapable of effectively countering organized crime: effort to counter criminal institutions result in violent intimidation.
  • Environment: Regular extreme environmental hazards or natural disasters, difficult to predict and manage. Inadequate and ill-prepared emergency response. Consequences include disruption to commodity supplies/business continuity. Large loss of life. Weak government institutions/emergency services to prevent disasters.
  • Health and Medical: Limited medical facilities even in major cities – medevac likely required. Multiple communicable diseases with few precautionary measures adopted or epidemic of fatal communicable disease. Inadequate and ill-prepared emergency response.
  • Infrastructure and Transport: CNI (Critical National Infrastructure) is failing with regularity. CNI is limited and unable to cope with demands placed upon it by local and foreign nationals. Tranport options are limited, and major routes are blocked for prolonged periods of time. Essential. Commodities (fuel, food, and water) are in short or irregular supply. Power and other utility supplies are cut with frequency (several times per day) and for periods longer than six hours.
  • Insurgency and Armed Conflict: Government legitimacy is challenged by well-armed non-state actors with both intent and capability to overthrow government. Well-armed separatist groups pose a significant threat to territorial integrity. Government control is removed over part of the country. Armed groups pose a threat to major economic centers outside areas of their control.
  • International Relations: Conflict in the limited geographical area utilizing conventional forces. Wide-ranging sanctions and international isolation. Overt threats to further escalate levels of violence or geographical spread. Foreign governments remove all staff.
  • Kidnap: Kidnap is widespread. Use of violence prevalent; moderate numbers of fatalities registered. Terrorist groups and other non-state actors use kidnapping to elicit financial or political randoms. Explicit intent to target expatriate community. Evidence of complicity by state actors.
  • Political Stability: Political system is highly unstable. New center(s) of rival political power growing, with increased chances of a coup. Violent dissent against the government. Overt threats of military intervention. Corruption is very high in both public and private sectors. Juridical system and law enforcement are under resources and/or fraught with corruption.
  • Terrorism: Terrorist attacks are frequent. Mass-casualty attacks have occurred. Security forces provide inadequate risk mitigation. There is widespread support for terrorist aims and methods in the area. The potential for regular mass-casualty attacks is high.

Country Risk Assessment – Critical Risk

Both the likelihood and potential consequences of being affected by a threat are so severe that most mitigation measures are either unavailable or ineffectual. Professional support is required.

  • Civil Unrest: Mass violent protests occur very frequently. Demonstrations have a critical impact on business continuity and violence is large-scale. Security forces are unable to deal with violence at demonstrations. Rioting is a very regular occurrence causing considerable economic damage and a major threat to human life.
  • Crime: Virtual breakdown in law and order. Illegal goods and organized crime form large part of economy. Organized crime forms a large part of the economy. Organized crime groups control avenues of power and operate with autonomy. Law enforcement/forces incapable of countering criminal activity. Criminal groups better armed and informed than national authorities.
  • Environment: Environmental disaster underway. Consistent environmental disasters make areas inhabitable/force mass evacuations. Transport and basic services are vulnerable to devastation. Substantial loss of life, consistent exposure to inhabitable conditions. No government institutions/ emergency services to prevent or respond to disasters.
  • Health and Medical: Medevac required for any treatment /medevac not available. Epidemic of fatal communicable disease.
  • Infrastructure and Transport: CNI (Critical National Infrastructure) has completely failed. Freedom of choice in terms of transport options is extremely limited. The supply of essential commodities is very infrequent.
  • Insurgency and Armed Conflict: Civil war. Separatist groups undermine territorial integrity to the extent that there is no recognized central authority. Multi-polar conflict involving several insurgencies.
  • International Relations: Intensified / total conflict in the area and general mobilization of armed forces. Use of extraordinary military capabilities (i.e. nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons).
  • Kidnap: Kidnap is widespread. Confirmed complicity of state actors. All protective measures to reduce kidnap threats are rendered null and void or non-existent.
  • Political Stability: Governance structures are highly ineffective or non-existent. Violent coup and/or anarchical situation. Comparatively equal centers of rival political power in violent opposition. Central government and state institutions are powerless or non-existent.
  • Terrorism: Terrorist intent, opportunity, and capability are extreme, and attacks frequently cause mass-casualties. There is widespread support for terrorist aims and methods in the area and active involvement in support and recruitment of terrorists is evident. Security forces provide few or no effective countermeasures.