Condé’s demise did not come as a large surprise since his popularity has been waning, following his move to seek a controversial third presidential term in 2020. Although he successfully amended the constitution and subsequently won the election, discontent among the populace has al-
ready been growing as he was accused of rounding up opponents and mismanagement and rampant corruption. Celebrations erupted as news of Condé’s ouster spread in the capital, Conakry. The man who was once regarded as the first freely elected president of the country was caught on television, looking disheveled, as the military announced a takeover. His fall mimicked other regional leaders who overstayed their terms before a popular uprising that prompted the military to intervene and in- stalled a new government.
The estimate is based on data consisting of 122 known massacres* of civilians between 4 November 2020 and 15 September 2021. This gives median estimates of the fraction of people executed as 2.6 percent minimum and 2.9 percent maximum. Assuming that similar killings took place in all the locations for which we do not have data, then for a total Tigrayan population of 7,070,260 (2020 population estimate), this gives 196,000 to 205,000 people executed (full methodology available upon request).
Following a surprise turnaround in the war in June, where Tigrayan military (TDF and TPLF) beat the Ethiopian and Eritrean national armies, two of the largest armies in Africa, out of the Tigray region, few new known massacres have occurred. However, deliberate and widespread cut- off from aid and food has caused a humanitarian crisis for the region. With Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and other belligerents joining the coalition resistance with TDF in August, dormant conflicts of marginalized societies and ethnic rivalry will eventually fragment Ethiopia.
Most cases have been registered in the north, where recent flooding and difficult terrain have hampered containment efforts. Due to lax border controls, the outbreak has also crossed into neighboring Niger, infecting thousands more in several southern regions that border Nigeria. The virulent waterborne disease is transmitted mainly by fecal contamination of water and food and spreads rapidly in poor hygiene conditions. Main symptoms include vomiting and acute diarrhea. While easily treatable, extreme cases