The deadline for the United Kingdom’s separation from the European Union is approaching fast, with 31 October set as the current date. However, with the political turmoil around the Brexit process continuing, any prediction of what the turnout will be remains difficult. Following a parliamentary vote the government will have to seek an extension until the end of January 2020 unless it secures a deal with the EU that the parliament accepts by mid-October. As of 23 September, a UN summit is imminent in New York where it will feature meetings attended by EU leaders and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Despite cautious optimism expressed by leading figures concerning the possibility of reaching a deal, the outcome remains uncertain, with the issue of the status of the Irish border remaining highly contentious.
If a deal is not reached by 19 October, and an extension is sought there is no guarantee that the EU bloc will grant it. If the EU in turn would require modifications to the extension in order to accept it, that would then need to be sent back to the British parliament for ratification, a scenario that would likely result in a no-deal Brexit.