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Risk Assessment Methodology

In-depth information on our risk assessment methodology.

Risk Assessment Categories

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Risk Assessment Methodology Overview

All alerts published in the Safeture Platform are assigned a severity level (low, medium, or high) as well as one or more out of the 21 different alert risk categories.

The country risk assessments are made based on seven different risk categories but have five different risk levels (negligible, low, medium, high and critical). Below you find in-depth information on the risk assessment methodology.

Risk Categories – Alerts

Airstrike: attack conducted by an aircraft (including UAV).

Armed Conflict: armed clashes between two or more state actors or aspiring state actors involving conventional warfare tactics.

Civil Unrest: violent gatherings (be it riots or violence on behalf of protesters, or forcible dispersal by security forces).

Crime: opportunistic and/or smaller scale than organized crime.

Cyber-attack: conducted via cyberspace.

Developing: any incident with potential immediate effect with yet unclear circumstances, which requires immediate notification to clients before all details are clear (for example- an explosion may be a suicide bombing or a gas cylinder accident, but nonetheless needs to be reported immediately so that mitigating actions can be taken).

Earthquake: shift in tectonic plates, Earthquakes can range in size from very weak to catastrophic.

Fire: a large and destructive inflammation event that may threaten human life, health, and/or property.

Health: medical threat to peoples’ well-being or interference of medical installations.

Holiday: celebration/occasion that results in travel/operational disruptions.

Kidnap and Ransom: an incident in which civilians are held against their will as leverage to receive ransom.

Labor Action: strikes of different levels, from local disruptions to complete shutdowns.

Militancy: armed clashes involving at least one side that employs unconventional warfare tactics.

Organized Crime – racketeering, extortion, blackmail, trafficking and any large-scale organized criminal activities.

Piracy – criminal attack targeting naval vessel.

Politics – changes in policies/strategic developments which may impact travel/operations.

Protest – gathering of a number of people to demonstrate their shared public ideas.

Rocket/Mortar – usage of standoff weapons in a capacity other than airstrikes.

Service Failure – water/electricity/communications outages, etc.

Travel – any incident that would impact travel and does not fall in line with the other categories (for example: road work).

Volcano – eruption of hot lava, volcanic ash, and gases.

Weather – unusual weather conditions that may pose risk to human life, property and business continuity.

Image – risk categories alerts

Risk Levels – Alerts

  • Low

Information that may be good to know, such as public transport disturbances, minor demonstrations or updates of previous security warnings.

  • Medium

Incidents or threats that may occur in the coming days or recently have occurred.

  • High

Immediate and serious threats to your safety and/or health.

Country Risk Categories

Safeture has assigned each country an overall risk level. This risk level is weighted based on the risk levels of all eight country risk categories. These eight risk categories are the following:

  • Armed Conflict 
  • Civil Unrest 
  • Crime 
  • Health 
  • Kidnap and Ransom 
  • Militancy and Terrorism
  • Political
  • Weather and Natural Hazards

Country Risk Levels

In the Safeture platform, every country is assigned an overall risk level, which is based on the combined risk levels for the different risk categories (crime, health, civil unrest, armed conflict, etc.). These risks are adjusted to the local context to reflect how the risks impact the operating environment in the country.

These are the five risk levels used for country risk assessments:

  • Negligible: Safe, minimal security risks. Travel risk: travel can continue free from risk.
  • Low: No substantial risk of physical harm, likely travel/operational disruptions. Travel risk: travel can continue as usual while adhering to cultural norms and local laws.
  • Medium: Some risk of physical harm, likely additional travel/operational disruptions; maintain heightened vigilance. Travel risk: travel can continue while adhering to relevant security precautions.
  • High: Substantial potential of physical harm, likely additional travel/operational disruptions; avoid nonessential travel to the area. Travel risk: travel should be limited to business-essential only.
  • Critical: Almost certain potential of physical harm, likely additional travel/operational disruptions. Travel risk: avoid all travel.

Country Risk Assessment – Negligible Risk

The negligible risk level represents a minimal security risk.

  • Armed Conflict:
    • No modern precedent for internal armed conflict.
    • Minimal potential of being directly or indirectly impacted by armed conflict in parts of the country.
  • Civil Unrest:
    • Infrequent and non-violent protests.
    • Minimal potential of being directly or indirectly impacted by acts of civil unrest in parts of the country.
  • Crime:
    • Crime rates are very low, no to low-level organised crime.
    • Minimal potential of being directly or indirectly impacted by criminal incidents in parts of the country.
  • Health:
    • Health infrastructure is effective. Common ailments pose no specific additional risk.
    • Minimal potential of being affected by serious disease.
  • Kidnap and Ransom:
    • Kidnap incidents are rare.
    • Minimal potential of being directly or indirectly impacted by acts of kidnapping in parts of the country.
  • Militancy and Terrorism:
    • No evidence of militancy or terrorist activity in the area.
    • Minimal potential of being directly or indirectly affected by a militant attack in parts of the country.
  • Political:
    • The political situation is very stable. 
    • Minimal potential for political changes that would affect operations in the country.
  • Weather and Natural Hazards:
    • Environmental hazards are limited.
    • Minimal potential to be directly or indirectly affected by natural calamities in parts of the country.

Country Risk Assessment – Low Risk

The low risk represents no substantial risk of physical harm, or likely travel/operational disruptions.

  • Armed Conflict:
    • The country is not engaged in armed conflict.
    • Limited potential of being directly or indirectly impacted by armed conflict in parts of the country.
  • Civil Unrest:
    • Incidents of civil unrest that usually do not pose any significant risk.
    • Limited potential of being directly or indirectly impacted by acts of civil unrest in parts of the country.
  • Crime:
    • Crime mostly does not pose a physical threat (white collar, petty crime) and crime rates are low.
    • Limited potential of being directly or indirectly affected by criminal incidents in parts of the country.
  • Health:
    • Health infrastructure level is good. No health-related risks in the country.
    • Limited potential of being affected by serious disease.
  • Kidnap and Ransom:
    • Kidnap incidents occur regularly but mostly within criminal circles. Abductees face reduced risk of physical harm and death.
    • Very limited chance to be kidnapped and held for ransom.
  • Militancy and Terrorism:
    • Militancy and terrorism activity is very rare.
    • Limited potential of being directly or indirectly affected by a militant attack in parts of the country.
  • Political:
    • The political situation is stable.
    • Limited potential for significant political changes that would affect operations in the country
  • Weather and Natural Hazards:
    • The country is rarely affected by natural disasters.
    • Limited potential to be directly or indirectly affected by natural calamities in parts of the country.

Country Risk Assessment – Medium Risk

The medium risk level represents some risk of physical harm, and likely additional travel/operational disruptions; maintain heightened vigilance.

  • Armed Conflict:
    • Few events of armed conflict impact the country every year and are mostly limited in scale and number of casualties.
    • Some risk of being directly or indirectly impacted by armed conflict in parts or all the country.
  • Civil Unrest:
    • Incidents of civil unrest that mostly involve low-level violence (scuffles) and disruption.
    • Some risk of being directly or indirectly impacted by acts of civil unrest in parts or all the country.
  • Crime:
    • The nature of crime in the country may pose some physical threat (mugging, extortion). Frequent incidents of violence between criminal groups.
    • Some risk of being directly or indirectly affected by criminal incidents in parts or all the country.
  • Health:
    • Health infrastructure level is not at western standards. Adequate access to good medical services in only limited parts of the country. Possibility of non-lethal diseases.
    • Some risk of being affected by serious disease.
  • Kidnap and Ransom:
    • Kidnappings are systematic as part of organised criminal activity. Abductees face some risk of physical harm and death.
    • There is a change to be kidnapped and held for ransom.
  • Militancy and Terrorism:
    • Few terrorist and militant attacks take place in the country every year and are mostly limited in scale and number of casualties.
    • Some risk of being directly or indirectly affected by a militant attack in parts of the country or all the entire country.
  • Political:
    • The political situation is mostly stable.
    • Some risk of significant political changes that would affect operations in the country.
  • Weather and Natural Hazards:
    • The country may witness low risk natural phenomena, such as earthquakes, shallow floods, with limited-to-no casualty tolls.
    • Some risk of being directly or indirectly affected by natural calamities in the country.

Country Risk Assessment – High Risk

High Risk – substantial potential of physical harm, likely additional travel/operational disruptions; avoid nonessential travel to the area.

  • Armed Conflict:
    • The country is frequently affected by armed conflict. Armed separatist groups pose a threat to territorial integrity.
    • Likely risk of being directly or indirectly impacted by armed conflict in parts or all the country.
  • Civil Unrest:
    • Civil unrest often leads to violence (use of non-lethal forcible dispersal measures/ Molotov Cocktails)
    • Likely risk of being directly or indirectly impacted by acts of civil unrest in parts or all the country
  • Crime:
    • Crime poses a physical threat (frequent violence, recurring armed robberies), crime levels are high.
    • Likely risk of being directly or indirectly affected by criminal incidents in parts or all the country.
  • Health:
    • Health infrastructure level is poor. Substandard medical services in at least most of the country Reported cases of life-threatening diseases.
    • Likely risk of being affected by serious disease.
  • Kidnap and Ransom:
    • Kidnap widespread. Evidence of complicity by state actors. Abductees are likely to sustain physical harm or be killed.
    • Likely risk of being kidnapped and held for ransom.
  • Militancy and Terrorism:
    • Terrorism and militant attacks occur frequently, and sometimes manifest as large-scale attacks.
    • Likely risk of being directly or indirectly affected by a militant attack in parts of the country or all the entire country.
  • Political:
    • Aggressive elections/ political changes, dissolvement of the government do occur. There is a potential for direct/indirect physical threats (riots, large scale demonstrations).
    • Likely risk of significant political changes that would affect operations in the country.
  • Weather and Natural Hazards:
    • There are frequent natural hazards which impact the infrastructure and cause a few casualties per year.  
    • Likely risk of being directly or indirectly affected by natural incident in the country.

Country Risk Assessment – Critical Risk

Critical risk – almost certain potential of physical harm, likely additional travel/operational disruptions; avoid all travel to the area.

  • Armed Conflict:
    • The country is heavily engaged in armed conflict or civil war. High number of casualties per year
    • Strong risk of being directly or indirectly impacted by armed conflict in parts or all the country.
  • Civil Unrest:
    • Civil unrest in the country is frequent, widespread, and violent (use of non-lethal/lethal forcible dispersal measures/ Molotov Cocktails)
    • Strong risk of being directly or indirectly impacted by acts of civil unrest in parts or all the country
  • Crime:
    • Criminal elements in the country frequently use lethal force. Significant armed groups/gang warfare, frequent incidents of active shootings and high rate of casualties
    • Strong risk of being directly or indirectly affected by criminal incidents in parts or all the country
  • Health:
    • Health infrastructure level is extremely poor. Breakout of fatal disease with high level fatality rate.
    • Strong risk of being affected by serious disease/
  • Kidnap and Ransom:
    • Kidnap widespread. Confirmed complicity of state actors. Abductees face a strong likelihood of sustaining physical harm or be killed.
    • Strong risk to be kidnapped and held for ransom.
  • Militancy and Terrorism:
    • The country is under a constant threat of militant or terrorist attacks. High number of casualties per year.
    • Strong risk of being directly or indirectly affected by a militant attack in parts of the country or all the entire country
  • Political:
    • Frequent changes of government that pose significant physical threats (violent coups, extremely violent demonstrations, usage of lethal weapons).
    • Strong risk of significant political changes that would affect operations in the country.
  • Weather and Natural Hazards:
    • There is an ongoing natural hazard that is already affecting the country and causing severe damage to infrastructure and human life
    • Strong risk of being directly or indirectly affected by natural incident in the country