2025
Risk foresight
Suzanne Sangiovese
Director of Travel and Technology, Riskline
Foresight 2025
The travel landscape faces an intricate balance between liberalisation and new barriers. While geopolitical tensions — such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and unrest in Europe — continue to disrupt flight connectivity and introduce new travel hurdles, other regions, like Asia, are loosening visa restrictions, creating new possibilities for growth. Climate change is also influencing travel behaviours, sparking a rise in demand for sustainable tourism and cooler destinations, while digital innovations in AI are transforming airports and enhancing efficiency, even as they introduce new cybersecurity challenges.
Safety concerns remain at the forefront. Intensifying conflicts across the Middle East, Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula continue to elevate security risks, alongside the growing threat of cyberattacks targeting infrastructure and spreading disinformation. Evolving political environments are reshaping national security measures, adding another layer of complexity for global travellers and businesses alike. To mitigate these risks, adopting robust travel risk management frameworks that include real-time threat intelligence can help businesses anticipate disruptions and protect their people in an increasingly unpredictable environment.
Health risks are also on the rise. Emerging diseases such as mpox and the Marburg virus, coupled with climate-related health challenges, highlight the need for integrated health security strategies that align medical, environmental and crisis response systems to proactively address health threats that could impact travellers. For organisations managing travel, integrating health security ensures that risks are identified early, response plans are clear and travellers are protected no matter where they are in the world.
Resilience, collaboration and innovation will be critical to navigating 2025’s challenges. By staying adaptable and forward-thinking, the travel and security industries can help ensure safer, healthier journeys for all.
Suzanne Sangiovese
Director of Travel and Technology, Riskline
Foresight 2025
The travel landscape faces an intricate balance between liberalisation and new barriers. While geopolitical tensions — such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and unrest in Europe — continue to disrupt flight connectivity and introduce new travel hurdles, other regions, like Asia, are loosening visa restrictions, creating new possibilities for growth. Climate change is also influencing travel behaviours, sparking a rise in demand for sustainable tourism and cooler destinations, while digital innovations in AI are transforming airports and enhancing efficiency, even as they introduce new cybersecurity challenges.
Safety concerns remain at the forefront. Intensifying conflicts across the Middle East, Eastern Europe and the Korean Peninsula continue to elevate security risks, alongside the growing threat of cyberattacks targeting infrastructure and spreading disinformation. Evolving political environments are reshaping national security measures, adding another layer of complexity for global travellers and businesses alike. To mitigate these risks, adopting robust travel risk management frameworks that include real-time threat intelligence can help businesses anticipate disruptions and protect their people in an increasingly unpredictable environment.
Health risks are also on the rise. Emerging diseases such as mpox and the Marburg virus, coupled with climate-related health challenges, highlight the need for integrated health security strategies that align medical, environmental and crisis response systems to proactively address health threats that could impact travellers. For organisations managing travel, integrating health security ensures that risks are identified early, response plans are clear and travellers are protected no matter where they are in the world.
Resilience, collaboration and innovation will be critical to navigating 2025’s challenges. By staying adaptable and forward-thinking, the travel and security industries can help ensure safer, healthier journeys for all.
Travel Foresight
The world of travel in 2025 is defined by a balance between barriers and liberalisation, shaped by a combination of geopolitical tensions, climate change and digital transformation.
Health Foresight
If 2024 is anything to go by — a year that included an mpox outbreak with a more contagious strain, a deadly outbreak of Marburg in Rwanda that thankfully appears to have been contained and record new measles cases as vaccination rates fall across the world — we are in for a challenging year for global health.
Safety Foresight
Looking to 2025, the global security environment looks riskier than ever. With a new United States (US) administration, there is uncertainty about what will happen to ongoing conflicts.
Suzanne Sangiovese
Director of Travel and Technology, Riskline
Travel
The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict and its regional ripple effects, will continue to impact flight connectivity, rerouting and delays. Meanwhile, Europe’s security measures, including reinstated internal border controls and new entry requirements, will further complicate travel across the continent. However, there is a rising trend of visa liberalisation in regions like Asia. Countries such as China, Thailand and Vietnam are embracing more relaxed entry policies, boosting tourism.
Climate change remains a key factor reshaping travel patterns, with an increasing demand for eco-friendly and sustainable travel options. The growing popularity of “coolcationing” — travel to cooler, offbeat destinations — and the rise of domestic travel are direct responses to the effects of global warming, which is altering popular travel routes.
The travel industry is also embracing digitalisation, particularly through AI-driven technologies that streamline processes in airport security and visa applications. While these innovations improve efficiency, they also expose the industry to new vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for a balance between technological advancements and resilience in the face of potential disruptions. As we look ahead, the travel sector is navigating a complex web of challenges and opportunities that will continue to evolve throughout 2025.
Travel foresights:
Suzanne Sangiovese
Director of Travel and Technology, Riskline
Travel
The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Hamas conflict and its regional ripple effects, will continue to impact flight connectivity, rerouting and delays. Meanwhile, Europe’s security measures, including reinstated internal border controls and new entry requirements, will further complicate travel across the continent. However, there is a rising trend of visa liberalisation in regions like Asia. Countries such as China, Thailand and Vietnam are embracing more relaxed entry policies, boosting tourism.
Climate change remains a key factor reshaping travel patterns, with an increasing demand for eco-friendly and sustainable travel options. The growing popularity of “coolcationing” — travel to cooler, offbeat destinations — and the rise of domestic travel are direct responses to the effects of global warming, which is altering popular travel routes.
The travel industry is also embracing digitalisation, particularly through AI-driven technologies that streamline processes in airport security and visa applications. While these innovations improve efficiency, they also expose the industry to new vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for a balance between technological advancements and resilience in the face of potential disruptions. As we look ahead, the travel sector is navigating a complex web of challenges and opportunities that will continue to evolve throughout 2025.
Adam Schrader
Director of Operations Riskline
Health
New outbreaks, at national or regional levels, especially in vulnerable locations or populations, seem like a given. While national and international public health systems responded well last year to mpox and Marburg, the incoming United States administration is likely to be indifferent or even hostile towards public health personnel and organisations like the World Health Organization (WHO). This will make it harder to fight new outbreaks, in 2024 and after.
Meanwhile, climate change and the extreme weather events it causes will remain a challenge to global security and human health. Catastrophic flooding and damaged infrastructure from tropical storms will aid in spreading diseases like cholera or vector-borne diseases like malaria or dengue. These hazards, typically associated with the global south, have begun to spring up in Europe and North America, in areas where the population has not previously worried about them.
While there have been many public health success stories since Covid, there is still much work to be done and no shortage of potential risks in the future.
Climate change remains a key factor reshaping travel patterns, with an increasing demand for eco-friendly and sustainable travel options. The growing popularity of “coolcationing” — travel to cooler, offbeat destinations — and the rise of domestic travel are direct responses to the effects of global warming, which is altering popular travel routes.
The travel industry is also embracing digitalisation, particularly through AI-driven technologies that streamline processes in airport security and visa applications. While these innovations improve efficiency, they also expose the industry to new vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for a balance between technological advancements and resilience in the face of potential disruptions. As we look ahead, the travel sector is navigating a complex web of challenges and opportunities that will continue to evolve throughout 2025.
Health foresights:
Adam Schrader
Director of Operations Riskline
Health
New outbreaks, at national or regional levels, especially in vulnerable locations or populations, seem like a given. While national and international public health systems responded well last year to mpox and Marburg, the incoming United States administration is likely to be indifferent or even hostile towards public health personnel and organisations like the World Health Organization (WHO). This will make it harder to fight new outbreaks, in 2024 and after.
Meanwhile, climate change and the extreme weather events it causes will remain a challenge to global security and human health. Catastrophic flooding and damaged infrastructure from tropical storms will aid in spreading diseases like cholera or vector-borne diseases like malaria or dengue. These hazards, typically associated with the global south, have begun to spring up in Europe and North America, in areas where the population has not previously worried about them.
While there have been many public health success stories since Covid, there is still much work to be done and no shortage of potential risks in the future.
Climate change remains a key factor reshaping travel patterns, with an increasing demand for eco-friendly and sustainable travel options. The growing popularity of “coolcationing” — travel to cooler, offbeat destinations — and the rise of domestic travel are direct responses to the effects of global warming, which is altering popular travel routes.
The travel industry is also embracing digitalisation, particularly through AI-driven technologies that streamline processes in airport security and visa applications. While these innovations improve efficiency, they also expose the industry to new vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for a balance between technological advancements and resilience in the face of potential disruptions. As we look ahead, the travel sector is navigating a complex web of challenges and opportunities that will continue to evolve throughout 2025.
Adam Schrader
Director of Operations Riskline
Safety
Looking to 2025, the global security environment looks riskier than ever. With a new United States (US) administration, there is uncertainty about what will happen to ongoing conflicts.
In the Ukraine war, a negotiated settlement in 2025 appears likely as the belligerents tire and the US and Europe split on military support. In the Middle East, ceasefires remain elusive, and the coming year will potentially see an escalation in violence, including with Iran, the consequences of which would be dire for the wider region.
Easier to project are the conflicts which will see very little change due to a lack of international pressure or willingness to end them. At the top of this list is Sudan, which will enter its third year of civil war. Other seemingly intractable conflicts include eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar.
Contemporary conflicts are often waged beyond the traditional battlefield or with novel weapons systems. Continuing trends from Ukraine and Gaza, artificial intelligence will be deployed for targeting, cyber attacks and other electronic warfare. The coming year holds the possibility of witnessing the first military attack in space, and we may finally discover at what threshold a cyber attack elicits a real-world attack in response.
Politically, the biggest change will come as Donald Trump takes office again and the world reacts to the new American leadership. Tensions will rise with neighbours like Mexico and allies like the European Union, but the real shift will likely be in the US-China relationship, which has been trending adversarial, but will get worse.
Meanwhile, climate change and the extreme weather events it causes will remain a challenge to global security and human health. Catastrophic flooding and damaged infrastructure from tropical storms will aid in spreading diseases like cholera or vector-borne diseases like malaria or dengue. These hazards, typically associated with the global south, have begun to spring up in Europe and North America, in areas where the population has not previously worried about them.
While there have been many public health success stories since Covid, there is still much work to be done and no shortage of potential risks in the future.
Climate change remains a key factor reshaping travel patterns, with an increasing demand for eco-friendly and sustainable travel options. The growing popularity of “coolcationing” — travel to cooler, offbeat destinations — and the rise of domestic travel are direct responses to the effects of global warming, which is altering popular travel routes.
The travel industry is also embracing digitalisation, particularly through AI-driven technologies that streamline processes in airport security and visa applications. While these innovations improve efficiency, they also expose the industry to new vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for a balance between technological advancements and resilience in the face of potential disruptions. As we look ahead, the travel sector is navigating a complex web of challenges and opportunities that will continue to evolve throughout 2025.
Safety foresights:
Adam Schrader
Director of Operations Riskline
Safety
Looking to 2025, the global security environment looks riskier than ever. With a new United States (US) administration, there is uncertainty about what will happen to ongoing conflicts.
In the Ukraine war, a negotiated settlement in 2025 appears likely as the belligerents tire and the US and Europe split on military support. In the Middle East, ceasefires remain elusive, and the coming year will potentially see an escalation in violence, including with Iran, the consequences of which would be dire for the wider region.
Easier to project are the conflicts which will see very little change due to a lack of international pressure or willingness to end them. At the top of this list is Sudan, which will enter its third year of civil war. Other seemingly intractable conflicts include eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar.
Contemporary conflicts are often waged beyond the traditional battlefield or with novel weapons systems. Continuing trends from Ukraine and Gaza, artificial intelligence will be deployed for targeting, cyber attacks and other electronic warfare. The coming year holds the possibility of witnessing the first military attack in space, and we may finally discover at what threshold a cyber attack elicits a real-world attack in response.
Politically, the biggest change will come as Donald Trump takes office again and the world reacts to the new American leadership. Tensions will rise with neighbours like Mexico and allies like the European Union, but the real shift will likely be in the US-China relationship, which has been trending adversarial, but will get worse.
Meanwhile, climate change and the extreme weather events it causes will remain a challenge to global security and human health. Catastrophic flooding and damaged infrastructure from tropical storms will aid in spreading diseases like cholera or vector-borne diseases like malaria or dengue. These hazards, typically associated with the global south, have begun to spring up in Europe and North America, in areas where the population has not previously worried about them.
While there have been many public health success stories since Covid, there is still much work to be done and no shortage of potential risks in the future.
Climate change remains a key factor reshaping travel patterns, with an increasing demand for eco-friendly and sustainable travel options. The growing popularity of “coolcationing” — travel to cooler, offbeat destinations — and the rise of domestic travel are direct responses to the effects of global warming, which is altering popular travel routes.
The travel industry is also embracing digitalisation, particularly through AI-driven technologies that streamline processes in airport security and visa applications. While these innovations improve efficiency, they also expose the industry to new vulnerabilities, highlighting the need for a balance between technological advancements and resilience in the face of potential disruptions. As we look ahead, the travel sector is navigating a complex web of challenges and opportunities that will continue to evolve throughout 2025.